Forex -Eurousd downward movement confirmed.

As stated earlier, it broke the trendline and moved below the MA 100 and 200, giving a strong confirmation of its downward movement.

Forex-Eurousd further downward movement

Euro broke the trendline. With the breaking of the MA 100 and 200, this will give a strong confirmation of its further downward movement.

Forex-Eurousd

Since it has dropped below fib 61.8%, expect it to drop lower. So sell on high and look forward towards it dropping lower on a longer time frame.

Euro Could Rally to 2009 High of $1.52: Charts

The euro could be set to rally to its high of last year against the dollar of $1.52, Royce Tostrams, technical analyst at Tostrams Groep, told CNBC Friday.

"The euro has been breaking above its high of mid-October at $1.40-$1.50, which is giving a buy signal. This will trigger a new rally into the euro against the dollar," Tostrams said.

The short-term target for the euro [EUR=X 1.4033 0.0004 (+0.03%) ] is $1.46, but over the next six to eight weeks the European currency could hit $1.51-$1.52, he said.

"We believe that interest in the euro is returning to the markets, so it will be a comeback of the euro against the dollar," he added.

Carol Harmer, chief market analyst for Mercury Forex and Charmer Charts, agreed that the euro is likely to gain versus the dollar. REad more

Forex-Eurousd more upside expected

As predicted Euro went higher. It has broken the fib 61.8 and expect this to go higher on a longer term. So buy on dip.

Fed Easing May Mean 20% Dollar Drop: Bill Gross

The dollar is in danger of losing 20 percent of its value over the next few years if the Federal Reserve continues unconventional monetary easing, Bill Gross, the manager of the world's largest mutual fund, said on Monday.

Source: pimco.com "Other countries and citizens are willing to work for less and willing to work harder—and we forgot the magic formula somewhere along the way," Gross said.

"I think a 20 percent decline in the dollar is possible," Gross said, adding the pace of the currency's decline was also an important consideration for investors.

"When a central bank prints trillions of dollars of checks, which is not necessarily what (a second round of quantitative easing) will do in terms of the amount, but if it gets into that territory—that is a debasement of the dollar in terms of the supply of dollars on a global basis," Gross told Reuters in an interview at his PIMCO headquarters.

The Fed will probably begin a new round of monetary easing this week by announcing a plan to buy at least $500 billion of long-term securities, what investors and traders refer to as QE II, according to a Reuters poll of primary dealers. Read more

Forex-Eurousd more upside expected

15 min chart indicates a likely short term pull back, but the 4 hour chart indicates a longer term upside. So buy on dip.

Forex-eurousd

Still heading towards 61.8 fib.

'Real Panic Going on' in Dollar Index: Charts

The dollar index looks set to continue its rapid decline and could fall below 72 point before the end of October, a level not seen since mid-2008, independent trader and technical analyst Bill McLaren told CNBC Friday.

"This is a real panic going on," McLaren said. "My gosh, the way this thing is running down here we could see the 71s without a problem."

McLaren expects the index to hit a low on October 29, but said there is a small chance the move could become exhausted on the 20th.

McLaren added that he had expected the index to reach a bottom on October 20, but the speed of its decline lead him to change his forecast.

The dollar index [.DXY 77.255 0.215 (+0.28%) ], which weighs the greenback against a basket of other currencies, held above 76 points Friday. It has suffered major declines since mid-summer after the Federal Reserve signaled further quantitative easing in a bid to boost the economy. Read more

Fool Proofing Your Gold Investment

Gold prices have been hitting record highs almost every day in recent weeks. For investors trying to figure out what to do, the situation gets more confusing when expert opinions on the outook for the yellow metal are as diverse as they are contradictory: Goldman Sachs says prices will hit $1650/oz within 12 months, but French bank Natixis says prices will actually decline in 2011 as the global economy recovers.

Tom Grill | Iconica | Getty Images

While Uwe Parpart, Chief Economist and Strategist for Asia at Cantor Fitzgerald, says all investors should own some gold in their portfolio, it’s easier said than done, as predicting the price of gold is just as tough as timing the stock market.

There are many ways to buy gold. You could buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF) such as the SPDRs GLD, mining stocks, futures contracts on the precious metals or the physical bullion itself. Each of these has its pros and cons.

Buying gold and storing it in a vault costs money and isn’t always practical for retail investors. Instead, John Stephenson, who’s written The Little Book of Commodity Investing, recommends investors buy shares in mining companies. Read more

Forex-eurousd still moving up

Eurousd still marching up, as stated earlier expect it to challenge fib 61.8 around 1.4420-55

Forex-eurousd moved higher

As predicted Euro moved higher and expected to challenge fib 61.8

Debt Crisis Will Hit Japan Next, Then US: Historian

Europe's sovereign debt crisis isn't over and will continue to spread, first to Japan and then to the U.S., warned renowned Harvard University professor, Niall Ferguson.

"There are more of those (sovereign debt crises) to come and, ultimately, it is going to come to Japan and the United States. And those crises of sovereign debt will be the big story," he told CNBC Wednesday.

The explosion of public debt will inevitably lead to either inflation or default, Ferguson added.

"It just depends on whether you borrow in your own currency in which case is probably going to be inflation; or someone else's, in which case is probably a default."

The British historian says further quantitative easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve will not help the economy, as the extra liquidity is unlikely to stay within the country. Read more

Forex-eurousd

Expect more upside. But will go for counterplay at Fib 61.8 around 1.442.

Austerity Will Push Euro to $1.50 by Year End: Economist

The euro will keep rising and will likely end the year at up to $1.50, as the European Central Bank pursues a highly deflationary policy, despite buying euro-denominated bonds, economist Warren Mosler, founder and principal of broker/dealer AVM, told CNBC.com.


AP
The ECB's cash is now dictating euro zone members' fiscal policy, Warren Mosler said.

Mosler, who predicted that the euro would bounce back towards $1.60 in June, when the single European currency was trading at around $1.19, said there was nothing to stop the euro's [EUR=X 1.3942 0.0013 (+0.09%) ] appreciation versus the dollar, short of a policy response from the European Central Bank.

"If it (the euro) keeps going at the rate it's going, it could go to $1.45-$1.50 by the end of the year," he said.

The ECB started buying government bonds belonging to distressed euro zone members such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to ease market concern regarding these countries' ability to fund themselves and some analysts have said the measure may be inflationary.

But the policy is, if anything, deflationary because it is accompanied by tough austerity conditions, Mosler said. Read more

Forex-Eurousd

Remain short on high.

Housing Woes Bring New Cry: Let Market Crash

The unexpectedly deep plunge in home sales this summer is likely to force the Obama administration to choose between future homeowners and current ones, a predicament officials had been eager to avoid.

Fuse | Getty Images

Over the last 18 months, the administration has rolled out just about every program it could think of to prop up the ailing housing market, using tax credits, mortgage modification programs, low interest rates, government-backed loans and other assistance intended to keep values up and delinquent borrowers out of foreclosure. The goal was to stabilize the market until a resurgent economy created new households that demanded places to live.

As the economy again sputters and potential buyers flee — July housing sales sank 26 percent from July 2009 — there is a growing sense of exhaustion with government intervention. Some economists and analysts are now urging a dose of shock therapy that would greatly shift the benefits to future homeowners: Let the housing market crash.

When prices are lower, these experts argue, buyers will pour in, creating the elusive stability the government has spent billions upon billions trying to achieve.

“Housing needs to go back to reasonable levels,” said Anthony B. Sanders, a professor of real estate finance at George Mason University. “If we keep trying to stimulate the market, that’s the definition of insanity.” Read more

Forex-Eurousd

Continue to short on high.

Forex-Eurousd Short Euro

Time to consider shorting Euro with the aim of it breaking 1.2605 this time.

Forex-Eurousd

As predicted, Euro moved up slightly to recover from its oversold position and then moved further down. Downward movement slowing down, so risky to short here. Expect some upward movement. Watch for the breaking of fib 50% - around 1.2602

Eurousd broke its trading range.

Euro broke down from its upward channel and broke through the trading range to move lower. 4 hour chart is in oversold territory so expect some upward movement before moving lower.

Upward channel

Watch Euro moving up the upward channel. So play the upward channel with the breaking of the lower channel line as stop loss.

Eurousd- Euro moving up

As predicted Euro moving up.

Downward momentum slowing down.

Downward momentum is slowing down. Time to consider going long.

EuroUsd -moving sideway

Euro moving sideway. Just wait for it to break resistance or support before making a trade.

China Favors Euro Over Dollar as Bernanke Alters Path

China, whose $2.45 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves are the world’s largest, is turning bullish on Europe and Japan at the expense of the U.S.

The nation has been buying “quite a lot” of European bonds, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the People’s Bank of China who was part of a foreign-policy advisory committee that visited France, Spain and Germany from June 20 to July 2. Japan’s Ministry of Finance said Aug. 9 that China bought 1.73 trillion yen ($20.1 billion) more Japanese debt than it sold in the first half of 2010, the fastest pace of purchases in at least five years.

“Diversification should be a basic principle,” Yu said in an interview, adding a “top-level Chinese central banker” told him to convey to European policy makers China’s confidence in the region’s economy and currency. “We didn’t sell any European bonds or assets, instead we bought quite a lot.”

China’s position may make it harder for the greenback to rebound after falling as much as 10 percent from this year’s peak in June as measured by the trade-weighted Dollar Index. The nation cut its holdings of U.S. government debt by $72.2 billion, or 7.7 percent, through May from last year’s record of $939.9 billion in July 2009, according to the Treasury Department, which releases new data today. Read more

US 'Virtually Certain' to Fall Into A New Recession: Rosenberg

The US economy is almost certainly headed back into a double dip recession, and economists aren't seeing it because they're using "the old rules of thumb" that don't apply this time, well-known economist David Rosenberg told CNBC.

Consumers' focus on shedding debt rather than spending will prevent the economy from growing and bring a halt to the recovery, said Rosenberg, a former Merrill Lynch economist who now works Gluskin Sheff, an advisory firm based in Toronto.

"The risks of a double-dip recession—if we ever got out of the first one—are actually a lot higher than people are talking about right now," he said. "I think that it's almost a foregone conclusion, a virtual certainty."

Rosenberg has long been pessimistic on the economy, believing thatpersistently high unemployment, weak economic indicators and massive debt-cutting—deleveraging—by consumers and businesses will send the economy into a double dip.

Though many economists disagree with Rosenberg about another the chance of another recession, his views are widely followed on Wall Street and have often been accurate. Read more

Forex-Eurousd

As predicted Euro retraces as it loses its upward momentum.

Showing lack of momentum.

Time to consider short as weekly chart indicates overbought and price action indicates losing momentum in its upward movement.

Forex -Eurousd broke daily 200 MA

As predicted, Euro broke its 200 MA on the daily chart (red line) and moved higher.

Sell the Dollar On Data and Fed: Currency Strategist

As the market speculates on whether the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy at its meeting on Aug. 10, one analyst is predicting more losses for the dollar.

The Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, DC.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will change the tone of their language to indicate to the market that the Fed sees the risks on the economy to the downside, Thanos Papasavvas, head of currency management at Investec Asset Management, said.

“Next week we will get a change in language and Bernanke will then wait for two or three months to see if the data will warrant a move on further quantitative easing,” Papasavvas said.

This will be dollar negative, with both weak data and expectations of further Fed easing driving the US currency lower, he predicted. Read more

Expect a higher Euro

As predicted, Euro retraced and moved up again to challenge the 200 MA in the daily chart (red line). Expect a breakthrough after its hourly chart retraces to build up the push through.

Euro - to challenge 200 MA

Expect Euro to challenge the daily chart 200 MA. Also expect Euro to retrace from 200 MA from its first challenge as it is in overbought territory, and subsequently break through as the weekly chart indicates that it is more likely to complete its fib 100% and bollinger band. With the expectation that US is likely to continue printing USD, this gives market the reason to short USD and therefore provides Euro to move against USD.

Forex-Eurousd

As predicted Euro marched ahead after breaking its resistance.

Fed Printing May Create 'Final Crisis': Marc Faber

The Federal Reserve will create a "final crisis" by continuing to print money because it is underestimating the strength of the economy, Marc Faber, the author of "The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report," told CNBC Tuesday.

And investors who share his bearish view would be better off holding stocks instead of bonds in their portfolios, Faber said.

Analysts have said the Fed will decide to re-start easing monetary policy, possibly by buying assets, as early as Aug. 10 when the next meeting over policy is scheduled.

"Investors should have listened to me already six months ago when I wrote that the Fed will continue to monetize … they will print and print and print until the final crisis wipes out the whole system," Faber said.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has "no clue what the economy is doing," and the Fed "misread in the last few months the strength of the economy," he added.

He sees "significantly more" quantitative easing ahead. A report in the Wall Street Journal said the Fed might decide on buying government bonds or mortgage bonds again. Read more

Broke through resistance

Challenged and broke through 1.30290.

Test 1.3029

As predicted Euro broke the fib 61.8%. Expect to test 1.3029. Euro moving into overbought territory. Expect Euro to retrace before moving higher.

Breakout

Eurousd going for a breakout.

S&P Closes Below 1040, Will Stocks Whoosh Lower?

Stocks [.SPX 1030.71 -10.53 (-1.01%) ] ended the final day of the first half of 2010 in the red; with investors running for the exits late day, once again.

The S&P fell below the technically important 1040 level that it had held since February, generating what chartists call a "head and shoulders" pattern – a very bearish signal. Read more

S&P's Negative 200-Day May Be Positive for Stocks

In Tuesday's market mayhem, the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500turned negative for the first time since last year, an ill omen to some.

However, Birinyi Associates took a look at the occurrences of the 200-day turning negative since 1945, and found that it's mostly preceded positive stock market moves in the next week, the next month, the next three months and even the next year.

"On average, over the next month the market is up 2.37 percent, and it posts gains about 78 percent of the time. It's totally counterintuitive. It's something people who are bearish...are going to say is a change in trend. When you look and this actually happens, that's not the case," said Cleve Rueckert of Birinyi Associates. Read more

Forex-Eurousd

Play the daily chart and short on high. Anticipate that Euro will drop further since stoc failed to complete its upward movement and Euro retraced from fib 38.2

Fannie-Freddie Bailout Could Cost Taxpayers $1 Trillion

By: Reported by Steve Liesman, written by Michelle Lodge

• Digg
• Buzz
• Facebook
• Twitter
• More Share

AP

For American taxpayers, now on the hook for some $145 billion in housing losses connected to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, that amount could be just the tip of the iceberg.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the losses could balloon to $400 billion. And if housing prices fall further, the cost to the taxpayer could hit as much as $1 trillion.

Two things are clear: Taxpayers don’t want to foot the bill, and Fannie and Freddie, taken over by the government in 2008 to stanch the financial bloodletting, need a major overhaul.

“Some of us who don’t even own homes are paying to support others and their home ownership, and they ask ‘why?’ said Robert J. Shiller, a Yale Universityeconomics professor and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. Read more

China Stocks Breach `Key' Technical Support at 2,481, BGC Partners Says

The Shanghai Composite Index’s fall below “key” technical support of 2,481 deepened losses today and sent a bearish signal to investors, according to BGC Partners Inc.

The measure tumbled 4.3 percent to 2,427.05, the steepest decline since May 17. The gauge breached a so-called “double- bottom” at 2,481, Jamie Coutts, a Singapore-based technical analyst at BGC, said in e-mailed comments. A double bottom is a chart pattern showing a drop in price, followed by a rebound and then another drop to the same price, usually indicating support at that level.

“Today’s break below a key technical level is prompting a rush of selling,” said Michael Liang, chief investment officer at Foundation Asset Management (HK) Ltd., which oversees $120 million. Shanghai Good Hope Equity Investment Management Co. President Zheng Tuo said investors “now expect shares to extend declines after the breach.” Read more

Soros Says Germany Could Cause Euro Collapse

Germany's budget savings policy risks destroying the European project and a collapse of the euro cannot be ruled out, billionaire investor George Soros said in a newspaper interview released on Wednesday.

Source: World Economic Forum George Soros

"German policy is a danger for Europe, it could destroy the European project," he told German weekly Die Zeit.

Soros, who earned $1 billion in 1992 by betting against the British pound, added that he "could not rule out a collapse of the euro."

"If the Germans don't change their policy, their exit from the currency union would be helpful for the rest of Europe," he said.

Chancellor Angela Merkel unveiled plans earlier this month for 80 billion euros ($107 billion) in budget cuts over the next four years—a package she hopes will bring Germany's structural deficit within European Union limits by 2013. Read more

Forex-Eurousd to test 200 MA

As stated earlier, Euro is set to test the 200 MA or around 1.242 based on 4 hour chart. Breaking that Euro is expected to move higher. The next point to consider will be the cracking of the bollinger and downward trendline on the daily chart which is around 1.27 -1.28