Forex-Eurousd fell to another new low.

Euro fell to new low. Supported with fundamental issues any upward movements will attract short sellers. Continue to short on moving higher.

Greece Bondholders May Lose $265 Billion in Default

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Holders of Greek bonds may lose as much as 200 billion euros ($265 billion) should the government default, according to Standard & Poor’s.

The ratings firm yesterday cut Greece three steps to BB+, or below investment grade, and said bondholders may recover only 30 percent to 50 percent of their investments if the nation fails to make debt payments. Europe’s most-indebted country relative to the size of its economy has about 296 billion euros of bonds outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.Read more

Don't Buy on This Dip: Chief Strategist

With Tuesday's 200-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking its upward run, the markets are due for at least a 5 percent correction from their highs, said Scott Redler, chief strategic officer at T3live.com.

"[This] is not the dip to buy," Redler said.

"At this particular point, it seems like there will be more downside movement here, versus getting involved for potential upside."

Redler said the S&P 500 will likely move to its 50-day moving average near 1,158. But if other European countries receive downgrades, or if other Wall Street banks get questioned on Capitol Hill, it could move closer to its 200-day moving average near 1,100. REad more

S&P Cuts Spain's Rating One Notch on Economic View

Standard & Poor's on Wednesday cut its ratings on Spain by one notch to AA from AA-plus, saying a longer-than-expected period of low growth could undermine efforts to cut the budget deficit.

Glowimages | Getty Images

The outlook is negative, reflecting the possibility of another downgrade if Spain's fiscal position worsens more than S&P currently expects, the agency said in a statement.

"In our opinion, Spain is likely to have an extended period of subdued economic growth, which weakens its budgetary position," Standard & Poor's said. Read more

Forex-Eurousd fell to new low.

As predicted earlier, Euro fell to new low affected by fundamental issues. Euro might rebound from its downward movement as it has moved into oversold territory but on the mid-longer term, its downward potential is still intact. Short on moving higher. The downward target of 1.24 is still on.

Greece Just Tip of Debt Crisis Iceberg: Roubini

The sovereign debt crisis will get worse and bond vigilantes could move on to even bigger economies like the United States and Japan when they are done sweeping through vulnerable European nations, according to economist Nouriel Roubini.

CNBC.com Nouriel Roubini

With government debt across the world soaring, the man who predicted the credit crunch is predicting a reckoning.

"The recent problems faced by Greece are only the tip of a sovereign-debt iceberg in many advanced economies,” Roubini told readers of his RGE Monitor Web site.

"Bond-market vigilantes already have taken aim at Greece, Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Iceland, pushing government bond yields higher.” “Eventually they may take aim at other countries – even Japan and the United States -- where fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path," he wrote.

Roubini said he fears failure to learn the lessons of the credit crisis will simply mean a bigger, more dangerous crisis is just around the corner. Read more

S&P Downgrades Greece to Junk; Portugal Also Cut

Europe's debt crisis worsened ominously Tuesday when two financially troubled countries— Greece and Portugal—saw their credit ratings downgraded as markets sold off their debt.

Greece was downgraded to junk status by Standard & Poor's, which lowered Portugal's rating as well. The Portuguese downgrade was a sign the European Union's fears of that the debt crisis would spread beyond Greece—and further undermine the euro currency—might be coming true.

The move triggered a major selloff in in global stocks. European shares fell at their fastest rate in more than two months on Tuesday, while the Dow Jones Industrials plunged over 100 points.

US crude oil futures sank more than 2 percent and the euro fell back near a one-year low against the U.S. dollar. Read more

Rogoff Says Greece May Not Be Europe’s Last Bailout

By Simon Kennedy

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Greece is unlikely to be the last euro nation to need an International Monetary Fund bailout, with Ireland, Spain and Portugal “conspicuously vulnerable,” said Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff.

“It’s more likely than not that we’ll need an IMF program in at least one more country in the euro area over the next two to three years,” Rogoff, a former IMF chief economist who has co-authored studies of financial and sovereign debt crises, said in a telephone interview. “The budget cuts needed in Europe in many countries are profound.”Read more

Merkel Tells Greece, Euro Region That Bailout Isn’t a Done Deal

German Chancellor Angela Merkel hit the campaign trail with a warning to Greece and the rest of the euro region that a bailout of the debt-stricken nation isn’t a done deal.

“I’ve said for weeks that Greece must do its homework first,” Merkel said late yesterday, drawing applause from an audience in the town of Soest in North Rhine-Westphalia, where state elections are due on May 9. She said that while Germany is prepared to release funds for debt-stricken Greece, “first I want to see the program.”

Greece is paying the price for Merkel’s bid to keep her coalition in control of Germany’s biggest state and ease voters’ anger about having to help fund a $60 billion bailout. Greek bonds plunged yesterday as Germany’s reluctance to guarantee funds stoked concern that a rescue package co-financed by the euro region and the International Monetary Fund could still fall apart.Read more

Forex-Eurousd Broke back into the downward channel.

Affected by fundamental issues, Euro has broken the channel and moved back into the downward channel. Euro has broken the fibo 61% and would be heading towards 1.24 in the mid-longer term. Short Euro on moving higher.

Greece is likely to cut or delay payments to bond investors

By Matthew Brown

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Greece is likely to cut or delay payments to bond investors even as the country negotiates a bailout package with the European Commission and International Monetary Fund, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“Look out for signs that the government might offer a voluntary debt-restructuring arrangement sometime over the next few months,” Erik F. Nielsen, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs in London, wrote in a report. “A large multi-year official rescue package combined with a voluntary debt restructuring would create a much longer breathing space for the government to undertake the necessary reforms.”Read more

Moody's Downgrades Greece on Debt Concerns

Moody's Investors Service on Thursday downgraded Greece's sovereign rating and said it may lower it further, citing the risk that the debt-laden country may end up paying a lot more for its borrowing than previously thought.

Angelo Cavalli | Photodisc | Getty Images

The agency cut the rating by one notch to A3, placing it four notches above speculative, or "junk" status. The new rating remains on review for a possible downgrade.

The action "is based on Moody's view that there is a significant risk that debt may only stabilize at a higher and more costly level than previously estimated," said the agency. Read more

Sovereign Debt Crisis Likely to Spread: Roubini

The sovereign debt crisis facing Europe, which started in Greece, is spreading to many other large economies in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), according to New York University professor of economics Nouriel Roubini.

Photo: Oliver Quillia for CNBC Nouriel Roubini

"Public debt sustainability has exploded as a serious issue in advanced economies, most notably in the euro zone's 'PIIGS' —Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain—but also in many larger OECD economies, including the United States," Roubini said in a note posted on his Roubini Global Economics Web site.

As the Greek government meets with International Monetary Fund (IMF) officials in Athens, the man who called the financial crisis warns that Greece's problems will not be solved by any rescue package. Read more

Bear Market Rally Is Near Its Top: Strategist

A major factor for the market is the Greek crisis, which Gjisels believes is not resolved "whichever way you look at it." With Greek spreads continuing to widen, it will not take long before Athens is forced to ask for assistance from the EU and IMF, he told "Squawk Box Europe."

But if Greece implements all the austerity measures asked of it, it will enter a deflationary, long-term recession that will make its balance sheet look even worse, he said.

If contagion were to happen and problems were to spread to Spain, Europe would have to put up about 200 billion euros ($269 billion) of which 40 billion euros would have to come from Germany, according to Gjisels.

This would be almost impossible for Angela Merkel and other EU leaders sell to the voters, he said.

"With all the problems on the table, it is almost impossible to understand that equity markets continue to look the other way," Gjisels warned. Read more

Forex-Eurousd to rebound and move higher?

Euro might rebound from the downward upper channel line and move higher. This is supported with the oversold position.

IMF Says Government Debt Poses Biggest Risk to Growth

“The deterioration of fiscal balances and the rapid accumulation of public debt have altered the global risk profile,” the IMF said. “Vulnerabilities now increasingly emanate from concerns over the sustainability of governments’ balance sheets.”

Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s largest bond fund, earlier this year identified the U.S., Italy, France, Greece, Japan and the U.K. as economies sitting in a “ring of fire.” Each has debt above 90 percent of gross domestic product or the potential for it to rise there soon, slowing economic growth, Pimco said. Read more

Greek Bailout Talks Could Take Three Weeks; Bond Payment Looms

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- Negotiations over the conditions Greece must accept to trigger a 45 billion-euro ($61 billion) emergency-aid package may run into early May, within weeks of 8.5 billion euros of Greek bonds coming due.

“There is no chance that Greece will be left hanging in the month of May, whether borrowing from the market or borrowing from our partners,” Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said at a press conference today in Athens.

The talks with euro-region, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank officials will begin tomorrow and last at least 10 days, he said. The negotiations, to focus on austerity measures needed mostly in the second and third year of the plan, will take two to three weeks, the European Commission said. Read more

George Soros Talking the Euro to ‘Death’

First it was the “Death Spiral,” now it is the “Death Circle.”

George Soros told a Greek TV station last night that the government in Athens is facing the prospect of both recession and falling budget revenue if yields on Greek debt remain this high.

The comments will be as welcome in Athens, Brussels and Berlin as giant cloud of ash as authorities across the euro zone fret over the impact of the European Union/International Monetary Fund rescue package.

Soros, who made more than $1 billion shorting the pound out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, has been highly critical of the rescue package terms that he says Athens has no choice but to accept.

"I think it is necessary because the market interest rate is really far too high to make it possible for Greece to meet the conditions that are required of it,” he said, according to Reuters. Read more

Warning — This Market Is Tiring: Elliott Wave Analyst

There are a lot of "warnings signs" that markets may have come too far, too fast, said Steve Hochberg, chief market analyst at Elliott Wave International.

“In our view, extreme opinions that are shared widely probably constitute the single best indicator of an imppending change of trend in the market," Hochberg told CNBC.

"We’re seeing a whole host of indicators lining up on one side of the ledger, which is the opposite side of where they were in the first quarter of 2009.”

Hochberg noted that the CBOE volatility index (VIX), widely considered to be the best gauge of fear in the market, "collapsed" from a record high in the fourth quarter of 2008. The index closed at its lowest level in 10 years on Wednesday.

“There are a whole host of indicators that suggest this market is tiring,” he said. Read more

George Soros Is Right, the Euro May Be Doomed

In an interview with Corriere della Sera, George Soros said that unless Germany agrees to play its traditional leadership role in Europe and makes concessions to other members of the euro zone, the single currency itself could be at risk.

"The Germans have always made the concessions needed to advance the European Union, when people were looking for a deal. Not any more. That's why the European project is stalled," Soros said.

But Soros is not alone in believing the great euro experiment is now in serious danger.

Economists at Morgan Stanley believe that while the rescue package for Greece removes short-term liquidity risks, “long-term solvency risks remain firmly in place

Morgan Stanley as a result concludes there is now a very real chance of both the euro and the EU falling apart.ace." Read more

Greece T-Bill Sale Oversubscribed, Yields Jump

Greece easily sold a total of 1.2 billion euros ($1.63 billion) of 6-month and one-year T-bills on Tuesday, passing its first borrowing test since details of an EU/IMF safety net were announced at the weekend.

Angelo Cavalli | Photodisc | Getty Images

The debt agency accepted an additional 360 million euros in non-competitive bids, bringing the total proceeds to 1.56 billion euros.

The successful sale may encourage Greece to continue trying to go it alone in refunding its debt instead of applying for emergency loans, although borrowing remains quite costly, adding to budget strains. Read more

US Dollar's Strength is Waning: Charts

The U.S. dollar's strength appears to be waning as the focus turns from Europe's debt worries to China's possible appreciation of its currency, Chris Zwermann, global strategist and technical analyst at Zwermann Financial said Tuesday.

"If China starts to devaluate the dollar, to upgrade the yuan, we might see even a further weakness on the U.S. dollar worldwide, which means also against the euro," Zwermann said. Read more

Art Cashin: Expect a 3-4% Pullback Going Forward

“We’ve got a market that’s subsisted on a diet of positive news and that news is getting less bang for its buck at this stage of the rally,” Piskorowski told CNBC. “We’re due for some consolidation and the market hasn’t seen anything more than slightly less than a 5 percent pullback over the last 9 months.”

Piskorowski said although he expects earnings and economic growth to pick up in the second half of the year, it’s not going to be “blockbuster” type of year.Read more

Greek Debt Demand May Rebound at Auction on ‘Zero’ Default Risk

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Demand for Greece’s debt may recover as the government sells 1.2 billion euros ($1.6 billion) of Treasury bills in its first offering since winning an aid package from the European Union.

Greece will auction 26- and 52-week bills today as it seeks to fund the EU’s biggest budget deficit. Euro-region finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund offered the country as much as 45 billion euros in loans two days ago. The nation’s bonds jumped yesterday as the lifeline boosted confidence the government will honor its debt payments.

“The rescue package means the default risk over the next 12 months is now close to zero,” said Kornelius Purps, a fixed- income strategist in Munich at UniCredit SpA, one of 22 financial institutions that deal directly with Greece’s debt agency. “This wasn’t the case last week. I can imagine that demand will be closer to the stronger levels we saw last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Greece raises much more than initially planned.”Read more

Greece Wins EU45 Billion Aid Pledge to Blunt Crisis

By James G. Neuger and Jonathan Stearns

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- European governments offered debt- plagued Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates in a bid to stem its fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro.

Forced into action by a surge in Greek borrowing costs to an 11-year high, euro-region finance ministers said yesterday they would offer as much as 30 billion euros in three-year loans in 2010 at around 5 percent. That’s less than the current three- year Greek bond yield of 6.98 percent. Another 15 billion euros would come from the International Monetary Fund. Read more

Greek Rescue Plan Could Give Global Markets a Major Boost

By: Reuters

Markets around the world are set to rally on Monday in response to European governments' agreement on a massive financial safety net for Greece, though the country will still struggle to resolve its debt crisis.

After two previous announcements this year failed to calm the markets, euro zone finance ministers on Sunday overcame deep political divisions and revealed a plan that appears generous and detailed enough to ease fears of a Greek debt default.

Tom Pfeiffer | Getty Images View over the caldera of Santorini in Greece.

The ministers approved a mechanism for their countries to extend up to 30 billion euros ($40 billion) of emergency loans to Greece. Athens has not decided whether to apply for the aid, but many analysts think it will have to do so.

Together with at least 10 billion euros expected from the International Monetary Fund in the first year, Greece may receive the biggest multilateral financial rescue ever.

"I think it will be a big boost to all markets, not only Europe but in Asia and here in the U.S. as well," said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates, an investment advisory firm in Toledo, Ohio. "It was one of the clouds that prevented the U.S. (stock market) from breaking through to new highs, so lifting this barrier will be a big positive. We have a lot of money on the sidelines globally and this could be a big catalyst to bring some of that money in."REad more

Forex-EUROUSD continues to march upward.

Euro continues to move further up breaking the neckline of the double bottom. Expect to move up 1.375 or near that region which is around fibo 161.8%, unless affected by some serious fundamental issues. Look at the daily chart. It is most likely it will close the upper bollinger.

Forex-Eurousd -ignore bad news and moved further up

Euro moved further up with the double bottom formation.

Forex-Eurousd

As predicted Euro rebounded from the double bottom.

Forex-Eurousd

Possibility that Euro might rebound after near or touching Fibo 100%. If so, formation of W is in play. Take a look at the daily chart. It is in oversold territory which supports for a rebound, if not affected by serious fundamental issues.

Forex-Eurousd

Euro dropped and moved very close to Fibo 100% as predicted.

Japanese Machinery Orders Unexpectedly Fall 5.4%

apanese machinery orders unexpectedly fell for a second month in February, a sign that the resurgence in overseas demand isn’t enough to compel companies to spend on plant and equipment.

“Companies’ growth expectations have come down” and they’re still burdened by excess capacity, Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo, said before the report. “So the pace of a recovery in capital spending should be a bit slow this time, compared with those in the previous recovery phases.” The yen traded at 93.20 per dollar at 8:59 a.m. in Tokyo from 93.21 before the report was published. Read more

Europe Economy Unexpectedly Stalled in Fourth Quarter

By Simone Meier

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Europe’s economy unexpectedly stagnated in the fourth quarter as companies cut spending more than previously estimated.

Gross domestic product in the 16-nation euro region remained unchanged compared with the third quarter, when it rose 0.4 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. It had previously reported a fourth- quarter expansion of 0.1 percent. Corporate investment dropped 1.3 percent instead of the 0.8 percent estimated earlier. Read more

U.S., European Stocks, Commodities Decline as Greek Bonds Slump

Greece is more likely to default than all the European Union’s members in eastern Europe, including three that needed International Monetary Fund-led bailouts, credit default swaps show. Investors may demand a yield of as much as 7.25 percent to buy Greek 10-year dollar-denominated bonds, according to Paris- based Axa Investment Managers, which oversees about $669 billion. U.S. equities extended losses after the Federal Reserve said U.S. consumer credit declined by $11.5 billion in February.

“This issue with Greece is still hanging out there,” said Michael Mullaney, who helps manage $9 billion at Fiduciary Trust Co. in Boston. “The debt crisis that’s happening right now in Euroland is causing some consternation with investors.” Read more

Fed's Hoenig: Time to 'Put the Market on Notice' on Risk

He said on Wednesday the Fed could raise rates to around 1 percent, which would keep borrowing costs at historically low levels while sending a signal that easy money policies put in place during the crisis are steadily being pulled back.

"The time is right to put the market on notice that it must again manage its risk, be accountable for its actions, and cease its reliance on assurances that the Federal Reserve, not they, will manage the risks they must deal with in a market economy," Hoenig said. Read more

Forex-Eurousd

Euro dropped below fibo 61.8%. Expect it to drop to 100% fibo.