Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid

Traderone : Let divert to something interesting. Is this the end of everything?

AP – FILE - In this Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2006, file photo Russia's Federal Space Agency chief Anatoly Perminov …

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV, Associated Press Writer Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press Writer – Wed Dec 30, 9:34 pm ET

MOSCOW – Russia's space agency chief said Wednesday a spacecraft may be dispatched to knock a large asteroid off course and reduce the chances of earth impact, even though U.S. scientists say such a scenario is unlikely.

Anatoly Perminov told Golos Rossii radio the space agency would hold a meeting soon to assess a mission to Apophis. He said his agency might eventually invite NASA, the European Space Agency, the Chinese space agency and others to join the project.

When the 270-meter (885-foot) asteroid was first discovered in 2004, astronomers estimated its chances of smashing into Earth in its first flyby, in 2029, at 1-in-37.

Further studies have ruled out the possibility of an impact in 2029, when the asteroid is expected to come no closer than 18,300 miles (29,450 kilometers) from Earth's surface, but they indicated a small possibility of a hit on subsequent encounters.

NASA had put the chances that Apophis could hit Earth in 2036 as 1-in-45,000. In October, after researchers recalculated the asteroid's path, the agency changed its estimate to 1-in-250,000.

NASA said another close encounter in 2068 will involve a 1-in-330,000 chance of impact.

Don Yeomans, who heads NASA's Near-Earth Object Program, said better calculations of Apophis' path in several years "will almost certainly remove any possibility of an Earth collision" in 2036.

"While Apophis is almost certainly not a problem, I am encouraged that the Russian science community is willing to study the various deflection options that would be available in the event of a future Earth threatening encounter by an asteroid," Yeomans said in an e-mail Wednesday.

Without mentioning NASA's conclusions, Perminov said that he heard from a scientist that Apophis is getting closer and may hit the planet. "I don't remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032," Perminov said.

"People's lives are at stake. We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would allow us to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people," Perminov said.

Scientists have long theorized about asteroid deflection strategies. Some have proposed sending a probe to circle around a dangerous asteroid to gradually change its trajectory. Others suggested sending a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid and alter its momentum, or hitting it with nuclear weapons.

Perminov wouldn't disclose any details of the project, saying they still need to be worked out. But he said the mission wouldn't require any nuclear explosions.

Hollywood action films "Deep Impact" and "Armageddon," have featured space missions scrambling to avoid catastrophic collisions. In both movies, space crews use nuclear bombs in an attempt to prevent collisions.

"Calculations show that it's possible to create a special purpose spacecraft within the time we have, which would help avoid the collision," Perminov said. "The threat of collision can be averted."

Boris Shustov, the director of the Institute of Astronomy under the Russian Academy of Sciences, hailed Perminov's statement as a signal that officials had come to recognize the danger posed by asteroids.

"Apophis is just a symbolic example, there are many other dangerous objects we know little about," he said, according to RIA Novosti news agency.

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Traderone : Well it seems that there is still hope and there is still money to be made.

U.S. Economy: Confidence Rises as Outlook Brightens

By Courtney Schlisserman and Bob Willis

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers improved in December for a second month as Americans grew less concerned about the immediate future, pointing to an economy that will keep expanding into 2010.

The Conference Board’s sentiment index increased to 52.9 in December, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, according to figures from the New York-based research group today. Another report showed home prices climbed in October for a fifth consecutive month.

Attitudes about current conditions decreased to the lowest level in 26 years and wage expectations also fell, a reminder that the worst employment slump in the post-World War II era has shaken consumers. Gains in home and stock prices are helping households recover some of the record $17.5 trillion plunge in wealth, which may help sustain spending next year.

“We’re going to need a more definitive improvement in the labor market before confidence improves more than it has,” said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, who forecast a rise to 53 for confidence. “The housing numbers are encouraging, but apparently they’re not having much influence on consumer attitudes. Consumers are focusing more on the job market than the housing market.”

Stocks fell for the first time in seven days as declines in energy, financial and technology companies wiped out earlier gains. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 0.1 percent to close at 1,126.2.

Prices Improve

Retailers such as Toys “R” US Inc. are among those extending discounts beyond Christmas to lure customers.

“We are going to be very aggressive, we’ve been aggressive all season,” Toys “R” Us Chief Executive Officer Jerry Storch said by telephone Dec. 23 from Wayne, New Jersey, where the largest U.S. toy chain is based.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose 0.4 percent in October from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the group said today. The gauge was down 7.3 percent from October 2008, the smallest year-over-year decline since October 2007.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast the confidence measure would increase to 53, according to the median of 64 projections, from a previously reported 49.5 in November. Estimates ranged from 46 to 56.5.

The group’s index averaged 45.2 this year, the lowest annual rate since records began in 1967. The measure averaged 58 in 2008 and 103.4 in 2007.

Job Market

The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions decreased to 18.8, the lowest level since February 1983, from 21.2 the prior month. Fewer people said jobs are plentiful, while the proportion of those who said jobs are hard to get also decreased.

The gauge of expectations for the next six months climbed to 75.6, the highest since the recession began two years ago, from 70.3 the prior month.

The share of people who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months decreased, while more Americans anticipated employment will improve.

“If consumers are worried about income, they’re not going to be out there spending a whole lot,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. “The economy is moving forward, but not at a particularly great pace.”

A jobless rate that is forecast to exceed 10 percent through the first half of next year may prompt policy makers and retailers to maintain tax breaks and incentives to entice buyers.

Buying Plans

Consumer buying plans for automobiles and real estate dropped this month, today’s Conference Board report showed. Home-buying expectations fell to the lowest level since 1982.

“It’s clear that consumer concerns about unemployment levels and the economic climate are weighing on spending,” Walgreen Co. Chief Executive Officer Gregory Wasson said on a conference call with analysts Dec. 21. “Consumers are focused on value and discretionary items.”

To help ensure housing doesn’t weaken again, President Barack Obama and Congress last month extended a tax credit for first-time buyers until April 30 from Nov. 30, and expanded it to include some current owners.

A surge in home purchases by first-time U.S. buyers is doing little to help real estate agents and brokers who close the deals.

Fewer Commissions

Commissions in 2009 fell to the lowest level in seven years, driven down by sales of low-priced homes to first-time buyers using the federal tax credit. Commissions through November dropped 6.2 percent from a year earlier to $40.6 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the average commission rates from Real Trends Inc. and on home price and sales data from the National Association of Realtors.

The S&P/Case-Shiller report showed prices in 11 of the 20 areas covered increased on a seasonally adjusted basis compared with the prior month, while eight had a decline. The biggest month-to-month gain was in San Francisco, which climbed 1.7 percent.

All of the 20 cities in the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed a smaller year-over-year decline than in September.

“We’re starting to get a little bit of a turnaround, things are stabilizing,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “People aren’t in a panic in terms of selling their homes.”

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Traderone: These consumers' barometers seem to fluctuate like the stock market - up and down.

Kuala Lumpur Future -29 Dec 09

60 min chart - rebounded from Fibo 23%. Daily chart- edging up bollinger, likely to be heading towards previous high though stoc is showing over bought.

S&P Charts Full of Bull (Market)

By: CNBC.com

The S&P 500 index is still in a bull market and can make a move to 1,170 if it can hold on to current technical levels, Jeffrey Weiss, chief technical analyst at Jesup & Lamont, told CNBC Tuesday.

"A bull, in my opinion, was born. I believe the bull started… at the end of July, early August when we overcame 960-980," Weiss told "Squawk Box."

Wall Street is enjoying a six-day winning streak. On Monday, the Dow and the S&P 500 registered their highest closes since October 1, 2008.

The S&P [.SPX 1127.78 --- UNCH (0) ] hit a low of 666 in March and has been rising ever since. The fact that it has been closing above 1,120 since Dec. 23 is a positive signal, according to Weiss.

If the index stays above the 1,120-1,125 area by 1 percent or more, it may rise to around 1,170, he explained.

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Traderone : Is it going to be bull or shit ?

FKLI- moving higher as predicted.

Kuala Lumpur Stock Future moving higher with the breaking of trendline as earlier predicted in my earlier posting.

U.S. Economy: Orders, Claims Signal Confidence Rising

By Courtney Schlisserman and Timothy R. Homan

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for durable goods rose and fewer Americans than anticipated filed claims for jobless benefits, showing companies are gaining confidence the economic expansion will be sustained into 2010.

Excluding demand for transportation equipment, which is often volatile, bookings for long-lasting goods climbed a greater-than-forecast 2 percent in November, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The number of workers applying for unemployment insurance dropped last week to the lowest level in more than a year, the Labor Department said.

“Business spending, after a long recession hiatus, is staging a comeback,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio. “Payrolls were cut too deeply over the last year, and hence, there will be a need to rehire to some degree.”

Stocks gained around the world on signs the global economic recovery was strengthening as companies such as 3M Co. anticipate spending on new products will increase and firings will slow. Economists at Morgan Stanley in New York raised their forecast for fourth-quarter economic growth to 5.1 percent after the report on durable goods, a percentage point more than they previously estimated.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.5 percent to close at a 15-month high of 1,126.48. Treasury securities fell, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up to 3.80 percent at 1:25 p.m. in New York from 3.75 percent late yesterday.

Aircraft Orders

A 33 percent slump in civilian aircraft orders, which are often volatile, limited last month’s gain in total durable goods orders to 0.2 percent.

Economists forecast orders would increase 0.5 percent, according to the median of 72 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 1.3 percent to an increase of 3.5 percent. The gain in bookings was the second in the past three months, following an unrevised 0.6 percent drop in October.

Orders excluding transportation were projected to rise 1.1 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey median. Estimates for this ranged from increases of 0.3 percent to 3 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell by 28,000 to 452,000 in the week ended Dec. 19, the fewest since September 2008, the Labor Department’s report showed. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance dropped in the prior week and those receiving extended benefits also decreased.

Broad-Based Gains

The durable goods report showed gains outside of transportation were broad-based, with increases in demand for machinery, metals, computers and communications gear.

Shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is used in calculating gross domestic product, climbed 0.8 percent in November, and October’s reading was revised to show a 1.5 percent jump, compared with a previously estimated 0.3 percent drop. Bookings for such goods, a proxy for future business spending, increased 2.9 percent in November.

It was a “much stronger than expected report,” Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to clients. Combined with revisions to October, the figures are “pointing to a much better outlook” for fourth-quarter corporate spending, he said.

Business investment in equipment and software may rise at a 5 percent annual pace this quarter, up from their previous estimate that called for a 3.5 percent drop, Wieseman said. Smaller declines in inventories will add about 2.8 percentage points to growth, he said. The economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.

‘Looking Better’

“Overall commercial spending is looking better than what we had hoped for,” Steve Felice, president of Round Rock, Texas-based Dell Inc.’s small- and medium-business division, said Dec. 21 in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We’re coming into this holiday season much more optimistic than a year ago.”

3M will increase capital expenditures next year by as much as 15 percent to about $1.05 billion, Chief Executive Officer George Buckley said Dec. 22. The St. Paul, Minnesota-based company will spend as much as $100 million to research new products, part of which will be used to hire 60 to 80 employees with doctorates, he said.

3M has trimmed about 6,400 jobs worldwide since last year and Buckley said he anticipates no large reductions in 2010 unless the economy weakens again.

Jobless Rolls Fall

The Labor Department report showed the number of workers receiving jobless benefits dropped by 127,000 to 5.08 million in the week ended Dec. 12. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

The number of people who’ve use up their traditional benefits and are now collecting extended payments decreased by about 2,900 to 4.73 million in the week ended Dec. 5. Thirty- nine of the 51 states and territories where workers are eligible to receive the government’s latest 13-week extension have begun to report data, a Labor Department spokesman said.

President Barack Obama this week signed into law legislation that included a stopgap provision to ensure that unemployment benefits aren’t cut off over the holidays.

To contact the reporters on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net; Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

FKLI-SPOT 24-12-09

Market is likely to move higher based on the 60 minutes chart.

Asian shares rise, dollar rally stalled

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on Thursday led by gains in technology shares, while the U.S. dollar edged further away from recent peaks after an unexpected drop in U.S. home sales cooled optimism about the economic recovery.

Japan

Gold prices gained 1 percent to $1,097.65, adding to the previous day's 1 percent gain spurred by the dollar's retreat and after sliding to a seven-week low on Tuesday.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 1 percent but trading was thinned ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays.

The Shanghai Composite Index led the regional gains, jumping 1.9 percent and extending its rebound from its lowest in seven weeks hit on Tuesday.

The Thomson Reuters index of Asia ex-Japan equities was up 0.9 percent.

Japan's Nikkei jumped 1.6 percent to its highest in three months, lifted by high-tech exporters such as Advantest on a weaker yen and after better-than-expected earnings from U.S. peers.

"Investors are welcoming gains in U.S. stocks and stabilizing currency moves. The solid performance of U.S. technology stocks is particularly positive for the tech-heavy Nikkei average," said Yutaka Miura, a senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities.

U.S. technology shares rose on Wednesday after solid earnings from Micron Technology Inc and Red Hat Inc, but the broader market's gains were capped by the home sales data.

Sales of newly built U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly dropped 11.3 percent last month to a 355,000 unit annual rate, Analysts had forecast an increase to 440,000 units.

The data reminded investors that the path to a recovery will be bumpy, one day after a larger-than-expected jump in sales of existing U.S. homes fueled a market rally.

The dollar hovered below a three-month peak against the euro and two-month high on the yen hit earlier this week. The dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six other major currencies, was also sitting below this week's three-month high.

The euro is on course for its biggest monthly fall against the dollar since January and was holding just above its weakest levels since early September after dipping near $1.42 this week. For further direction, investors will focus on weekly U.S. jobless claims due at 1330 GMT to see whether a recent improvement in monthly payrolls will be sustained. Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a total of 470,000 new filings in the week ended December 19 compared with 480,000 in the previous week.

U.S. crude oil for February delivery gained 71 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $77.38 a barrel, after jumping 3 percent in the previous day, driven by a weak dollar and U.S. data showing a fall in crude oil stockpiles last week.

(Editing by Kazunori Takada)

Is the Low VIX a Warning for Stocks?

Published: Wednesday, 23 Dec 2009 | 11:33 AM ET
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By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive Editor

The VIX hovers near its low for the year, and the stock market trades near its highs.

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Photo: Oliver Quillia for CNBC.com
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
On the surface, those kinds of moves may make you feel good about the stock market rally. The low VIX — a sign of low volatility — may even make you feel a little bit complacent.

But some traders watch this type of scenario as a possible warning sign.

There is, of course, the old Wall Street saying: "VIX low. Time to go."

Dan Deming, who trades the VIX, says that sometimes a low VIX and a high stock market precedes a stock market sell off. He says this may not be the case just now, but just so you know, the last time he told me this was right before Thanksgiving. Who can forget the day after Thanksgiving when the S&P 500 lost 1.7 percent!

"It kind of indicates the market's at extremes. If it's going to new highs with the VIX staying a little bit off the lows or kind of in a holding pattern, it bodes better for the market," he said. "The VIX has been under pressure for the past month or two so the market is getting in a better position to support these high levels."

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The Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index is watched as a measure of investor fear or uncertainty. Low volatility also goes hand in hand with low stock market volume. The VIX was trading higher Wednesday. It fell below 20 Tuesday for the first time since August, 2008 and it is now about 75 percent below the peak it reached during the height of the financial crisis.

Deming said the current move may not be the set up for a fall but he's watching it nonetheless. He also mentioned another recent trend that has recurred for the past several months. As the month drew to an end, the VIX traded lower, but leading into the new month, it would see a spike.

"The market is setting up for a year end rally, and with volatility going to a new low for the year, people are saying that's a good sign for the new year," he said.

Deming said the focus in the pits now is on the S&P 500 and whether it will close above 1121, a level technicians are watching. "If we break through there, we'll probably see a nice pop," he said. That could set up a further decline in the VIX , which might be when the low VIX really does signal "time to go."

A 'Day of Reckoning' Coming for S&P 500: Market Pro

A 'Day of Reckoning' Coming for S&P 500: Market Pro
Published: Wednesday, 23 Dec 2009 | 12:42 PM ET
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By: Krystina Gustafson
Special to CNBC.com

After breaking through the 1,115 resistance level Tuesday, the S&P 500 will rise toward 1,135 over the next few days, said Uri Landesman, head of Global Growth at ING Investment Management.

Landesman then expects the index to hit 1,175 in early January—at which point chaos will ensue.

"When we get to 1,175, I think a day of reckoning comes," he said.

But Joseph Keating, chief investment officer of private asset management at RBC Bank, said he expects the recovery to continue gradually in 2010. He sees the S&P at 1,300 through the next year.

He said we are in the earnings-driven phase of the bull market, and as companies report growth in the new year, the markets will continue to tick upward.

"[It] doesn't mean we can't see a correction—we haven't had a 10 percent correction yet—but I think if we get one, I think that's a real buying opportunity," Keating said.

Keating isn't worried about the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, because yields may currently be too low, he said. He doesn't think the economy will be derailed if the 10-year yield rises to 4 percent, but if it goes much higher than that—which he thinks is unlikely—it could hinder a recovery.

"You need increases in wages for a generalized increase in inflation to take place in the economy," he said.