Friday, August 13, 2010

US 'Virtually Certain' to Fall Into A New Recession: Rosenberg

The US economy is almost certainly headed back into a double dip recession, and economists aren't seeing it because they're using "the old rules of thumb" that don't apply this time, well-known economist David Rosenberg told CNBC.

Consumers' focus on shedding debt rather than spending will prevent the economy from growing and bring a halt to the recovery, said Rosenberg, a former Merrill Lynch economist who now works Gluskin Sheff, an advisory firm based in Toronto.

"The risks of a double-dip recession—if we ever got out of the first one—are actually a lot higher than people are talking about right now," he said. "I think that it's almost a foregone conclusion, a virtual certainty."

Rosenberg has long been pessimistic on the economy, believing thatpersistently high unemployment, weak economic indicators and massive debt-cutting—deleveraging—by consumers and businesses will send the economy into a double dip.

Though many economists disagree with Rosenberg about another the chance of another recession, his views are widely followed on Wall Street and have often been accurate. Read more

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