Thursday, July 1, 2010

S&P's Negative 200-Day May Be Positive for Stocks

In Tuesday's market mayhem, the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500turned negative for the first time since last year, an ill omen to some.

However, Birinyi Associates took a look at the occurrences of the 200-day turning negative since 1945, and found that it's mostly preceded positive stock market moves in the next week, the next month, the next three months and even the next year.

"On average, over the next month the market is up 2.37 percent, and it posts gains about 78 percent of the time. It's totally counterintuitive. It's something people who are bearish...are going to say is a change in trend. When you look and this actually happens, that's not the case," said Cleve Rueckert of Birinyi Associates. Read more

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