Is the Smart Money Heading for the Sidelines?

Retail investors have begun to take the driver's seat in Wall Street's aggressive rally, an indication both that the surge could have some life yet and that it's likely nearing an end.

Mutual funds — the vehicles through which most mom-and-pop investors play the stock market — had lost funds for nine consecutive months heading into February.

But over the past several weeks the tide has turned.

Stock funds have seen inflows in three of the past four weeks, with another $1.04 billion coming in for the week ending Feb. 15, according to the most recent data from the Investment Company Institute. Unless there is a major shift in allocation, February is shaping up as a solidly positive month for stock fund inflows.

Trouble is, the last time retail investors didn't take more out of their funds than they put in was last April, which saw inflows of about $6 billion.

That move coincided with the end of a stock market rally that looked much like the current one — a big surge higher as the year began that preceded an ugly six-month skid that made sell-in-May-and-go-away the trade of the year in 2011.

What's more, institutional investors — often referred to as part of the "smart money" in the market because of their insider position — have been slowly heading for the exits.

After pulling about $100 million from zero-yielding money market funds in 2011, the folks with the deep pockets are heading back toward the sidelines. Institutional deposits have increased by $9 million in February — a relatively miniscule amount, to be sure, compared to a total of $1.74 trillion on hand, but a number that's been steadily rising.

Finally, corporate insiders are taking an increasingly cautious approach as well.

They've dumped $4.2 billion in stock this month, about double January's level and — here's that warning sign again — the most since May 2011 as last year's rally fizzled, according to TrimTabs.

Company stock buybacks, meanwhile, are at a healthy $2.1 billion daily level, but are mainly concentrated among a few big purchasers. The number of daily buyback announcements is at its lowest level since the October to November period of 2009. Read more