Thursday, March 3, 2011

Doug Kass: Market Generating Definitive Sell Signal

We know why you like Fast Money; the desk brings you a wide range of trading ideas from some of the Street's most celebrated figures.

On Wednesday the Fast traders turned to strategic investor and CNBC contributor Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners for his insights.

Kass is widely followed for his market timing. He correctly called a bottom last summer and also predicted the crisis lows in March 2009.

In a live interview we asked Kass about the sell-off, Yahoo! and a company that Warren Buffett may want to buy. As you can imagine he had lots of ideas. They all follow:

Market Generating Definitive Sell Signal

It’s no secret that Kass is bearish, he’s been skeptical of the rally for quite some time. And he remains convinced that the market is heading lower. He cites both fundamental and technical signals.

Looking at fundamentals, he thinks Street estimates are too high broadly because “energy prices will maintain at elevated levels and commodities prices are rising.”

In other words, he doesn’t think price targets take into account the ripple from higher oil. “Already we’re seeing sequential rate of growth and operating profits slowing.”

And Kass thinks technical signals are equally negative. Kass points to the Farrell Sentiment Index to support his thesis.

This technical measure “takes the number of bulls in the market (as reported by the American Assoc of Individual Investors) and divides by the bears plus half the neutrals,” explains Kass.

”When the ratio is under .50 and rising it’s a bullish signal. When it’s over 1.5 it’s bearish and the ratio rose to 1.50 on the week of January 14th – a definitive sell signal,” says Kass. Read more

1 comment:

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