In an unprecedented move, the number of investors fearing a catastrophic stock market crash is rising even with the stock market at 2 ½ year highs.
The unusual dislocation comes from two distinct reasons: a lack of trust in the U.S. financial markets following the so-called Flash Crash last May and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2007.
 |
This means the Flash Crash Advisory Commission that met on Friday has a long way to go in restoring confidence to the point that will bring the individual investor back into a market still ruled by high frequency trading, exchange-traded funds and leveraged hedge funds.
The Yale School of Management since 1989 has asked wealthy individual investors monthly to give the “probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U.S. in the next six months.”
In the latest survey in December, almost 75 percent of respondents gave it at least a 10 percent chance of happening. That’s up from 68 percent who gave it a 10 percent probability last April, just before the events of May 6, 2010.
“Even though the market is firing on all cylinders, that fear of big losses still looms large for investors in a way that it didn’t prior to the last bear market,” wrote analysts from Bespoke Investment Group in a report citing the Yale data. “Clearly, the financial crisis and the collapse it caused has impacted investor psyche in a big way.”
In the past, fears of a stock market crash in the Yale survey rose as the market declined because investors lost confidence in the economy and companies as share prices declined, and expected a capitulatory end to a bear market. For example, in March 2009 close to 85 percent of investors gave a crash at least a 10 percent chance of occurring. That record high in distrust and low in confidence marked a 12-½ year low in the S&P 500. Read more
No comments:
Post a Comment