Forex-EUROUSD -Retracement likely

Euro is resting on Fib 61.8%. Should it breach this, more downside to come which is likely to happen given the negative fundamentals. The 4 hour chart indicates a retracement is likely.

Hedge Funds Try 'Career Trade' Against Euro

By Susan Pulliam, kate Kellyand Carrick Mollenkamp

Some heavyweight hedge funds have launched large bearish bets against the euro in moves that are reminiscent of the trading action at the height of the U.S. financial crisis.

The big bets are emerging amid gatherings such as an exclusive "idea dinner" earlier this month that included hedge-fund titans SAC Capital Advisors LP and Soros Fund Management LLC. During the dinner, hosted by a boutique investment bank at a private townhouse in Manhattan, a small group of all-star hedge-fund managers argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity"—or equal on an exchange basis—with the dollar, people close to ...

What VIX Says About Market 'Gloom and Doom': Trading Execs

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the measure for fear in the market, rose over 8 percent to near 22 on Thursday. Should investors be paying closer attention to the figures? Gordon Charlop, managing director of Rosenblatt Securities, and Alan Valdes, vice president of Kabrik Trading, shared their insights.

“What we’re seeing right now is a bit of a reversion,” Charlop told CNBC.

“We’re still stuck in a trend and a bit of retrenching here.”

Charlop said he doesn’t see “any significant sense of gloom and doom.”

“We also seem to be a little bit light on volume,” he noted. Read more

Double-Dip Recession Fears Creep Back Into the Market

A miserable week of economic news has rekindled a big question in the market: Is the economy headed for a double-dip recession?

Thursday's economic reports only fanned the flames: Weekly jobless claims jumped despite projections they would start easing, and orders for long-lasting goods excluding airplanes dropped 0.6 percent instead of the projected 1 percent increase, suggesting waning consumer demand.

Those numbers followed reports earlier this week of a plunge in consumer confidence and the even more closely watched home sales, as well as a report from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp showing bank lending at its lowest levels in nearly 70 years.

"These numbers are not stabilizing," says Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors in New York. "We're two-thirds of the way through the first quarter and the jobs numbers are worse...I just look at all the signs of these things and I don't see us getting out of this." Read more

Forex-Eurousd Moved up as projected

Euro moved up from its oversold position and positive divergence as projected in my earlier posting.

Forex-Eurousd - oversold and positive divergence

4-hour chart shows oversold position and positive divergence. But fundamental issues are not favourable to Euro. However, I guess it will come to a point that all these negative news will be factored in and the market would decide to move ahead. The positve divergence would in a way indicates that the market is reacting less negative to the negative news.

FCPO-Safer way and bear fruits.

Shorting the breakdown of the upward channel bears fruits.

China Tells Banks to Limit Loans to Local States

China's banking regulator has told commercial lenders to restrict new lending they provide to local governments' financing arms to ward off potential risks of default, state media reported on Wednesday.

While relatively limited in scope, the step marks a continuation of efforts to check explosive lending growth that has set off concerns about asset price bubbles and the potential creation of a fresh crop of bad loans.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) ordered banks to inspect their existing loans to companies used by local governments to raise funds, and to stop lending to those projects that are backed only by expected fiscal revenues, the official Shanghai Securities News newspaper said, citing unnamed sources.

Read more

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Traderone : Can the market march on or move higher?

KLCI -How long can it hold on?

KLCI stubbornly hold on. Expect it to crack soon.

FCPO - A safer way

FCPO is now on a upward channel. A more conservative way of playing this would be to wait for the price to break the lower support channel line. With divergence in sight, the breaking of the lower support channel line would be a safer bet. Otherwise it would rebounce and move up towards its upper channel line.

Nearly 20% of US Workers Underemployed in Jan

Nearly 20 percent of the U.S. workforce lacked adequate employment in January and struggled to make ends meet with reduced resources and bleak job prospects, according to a Gallup poll released Tuesday.

CNBC.com

In findings that appear to paint a darker employment picture than official U.S. data, Gallup estimated that about 30 million Americans are underemployed, meaning either jobless or able to find only part-time work.

Underemployed people spent 36 percent less on household purchases than their fully employed neighbors in January, while six out of 10 were not hopeful about their chances of finding adequate work in the coming month, the poll said. Read more

Consumer Confidence Falls to 10-Month Low in February

U.S. consumer confidence fell in February to the lowest in 10 months, as consumers' short-term outlook for the jobs market worsened, according to a private report released Tuesday.

Jupiterimages | Comstock Images | Getty Images

The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 46.0 in February from a revised 56.5 in the prior month. February's reading is the lowest since April 2009.

The median of forecasts from analysts polled by Reuters as for a February reading of 55.0. The expectations index fell to 63.8 from 77.3. The present situation index dropped to 19.4 from 25.2 in January, the worst since February 1983. Read more

KLCI- Next Move

If the symmetrical formation continues to hold, then the next leg will be down as indicated by the arrows. Based on other indicators, this is likely to happen unless with the support of invisible hands.

Forex-Eurousd fell to 1.34**

Euro finally cracked and fell to 1.34** as projected in my earlier posting. This is supported with fundamental issue like the Fed's increased in discount rate. The 4 hour chart rebounce which was meant for short-term was interrupted with Fed's rate increment.

Forex-Eurousd moved up

Eurousd rally as predicted.

Forex-Eurousd - oversold

Eurousd in oversold position in 4 hour chart. Look for rebounce.

KLCI- Continue with the symmetrical formation

In the process of forming the symmetrical formation. Take a look on your left as indicated by the arrow and the right by the green arrow. Don't you see a similar pattern? Be careful of what is coming next.

No Love Lost Between Dubai World, Bankers on Deal Talk

If Dubai was floating a trial balloon with a rumored debt offer proposing a scant 60 cents on the dollar, it may have to think again.

Sharon Lorimer

Stock markets tumbled and bankers turned glum following a report that Dubai World was mulling offering creditors two options, neither one reassuring to investors already spooked by Dubai's debt debacle.

According to the report, Dubai World will offer creditors either 60 percent repayment over seven years and a government guarantee, or full repayment with a debt for equity swap for property assets of Nakheel and no guarantee. Read more

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Traderone: Is the market ignoring this by not reacting to this? Or is the market too busy with the Euro issues and will react to this later ?

The World's Biggest Debtor Nations

Throughout the financial crisis, many national economies have looked to their government and foreign lenders for financial support, which translates to increased spending, borrowing and in most cases, growing national debt.

Deficit spending, government debt and private sector borrowing are the norm in most western countries, but due in part to the financial crisis, some nations and economies are in... Read more

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Traderone: It is like those driving expensive cars but they are all deeply in debts. They borrowed to look good and rich.

KLCI and FKLI -Bear will not allow Bull to takeover yet.

If you think that Bear will allow the Bull to push it aside so easily, you better think again. The signals indicate that Bear will not allow the Bull to takeover yet.

EU to Press Greece on Budget, Stop Short on Aid, Official Says

By Tony Czuczka and Brian Parkin

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders meeting in Brussels tomorrow will probably press Greece to present more detailed budget cuts and stop short of announcing an aid package for the debt-stricken nation, a German government official said.

Read more

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Traderone: So it seems that there is no confirmed bailed out. This will drive the Euro down further.

Dubai World Seeks 6-Month Debt Standstill: Report

State-linked indebted conglomerate Dubai World intends to ask creditors for a six-month standstill on $22 billion in debt this month, until it completes restructuring, an Arabic-language daily said on Wednesday.

Sharon Lorimer

According to a report published in the Al Ittihad newspaper, Dubai World will request a debt freeze from the end of February, which would cover a bond repayment of $980 million from property unit Nakheel.

A spokesman for Dubai World said the company has not released a statement on a standstill and declined to comment further. Read more

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Traderone: After Greece, you have another issue waiting to pull the market down. One wave after another.

Greece Rescue Hopes Fueled By Possible Loan Guarantees

Germany is considering loan guarantees for Greece and other troubled European countries, the Wall Street Journal reported, fueling hopes that the EU will work out some kind of rescue plan for debt-strapped Greece.

Scott E. Barbour | Getty Images

Germany's Finance Ministry has reportedly been in discussions on such a plan with the head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, and may be looking to take a lead position in debt guarantees for Greece, the Journal said.

A final decision may not come this week, however, the WSJ said. The ECB declined to comment.

Reuters reported earlier on Tuesday that major European governments had agreed in principle to aid Greece. Various options were under consideration and no final decision had been taken, but the most likely possibility was to offer "bilateral help,'' the source said.

But German government spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm quickly called the report "unfounded,'' causing markets to falter briefly. Read more

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Traderone: Read the denial. Well I guess the market needs to find a reason for its technical rebounce. Further more it is not just Greece that they need to address.

Tuesday Look Ahead: Wall Street Sell-Off Not Over Yet

Stocks stumbled in Monday's final hour, signaling traders that the market's sell off could still have some ways to go.

Photo: Oliver Quillia for CNBC.com Outside the New York Stock Exchange in lower Manhattan.

The Dow fell 103 or 1 percent, to 9908, its first close below 10,000 in three months. The Dow is now 7.6 percent below its Jan. 19 high. The S&P fell 9 points, or 0.9 percent to 1056. It is now 8.1 percent below its January high but still 56 percent above its March low.

"A 10 percent down move on a correction is the first stop,Read more

FCPO- A better bet

Perhaps FCPO is a better bet than KLCI and FKLI if you are betting on the bull. With stock market going on a retracement, funds might flow into commodities, as the chart indicates a better picture as compared to the stock market.

KLCI - retracement to Fib 23.6%?

You could be looking at a Fibo retracement of 23.6% or around there, if without the help of invisible hands. Afterall, confirmation of the Bear has been established with price dropping below 100MA. I would think the Bull will give it a tough fight at Fib 23.6% because it is also the point of 200 MA. It will not be a straight dive though, but with waves along the way. So be careful.

Forex-Eurousd more to fall?

Based on weekly chart and Fibo, Eurousd might fall to or around Fib 61.8% or 1.348. So those who intend to hold on, better make sure you have the capital to absorb the fall.

S&P Will Correct to 2009 March 5 Low: Charts

By: CNBC.com

The S&P 500 index is likely to correct down to the low of 677 hit on March 5 2009, Bill McLaren, independent trader, said on Friday.

But the decline will be interspersed with counter-trend rallies" which usually last two to four trading days, he added.

McLaren told CNBC he sees the broader index reaching 960 on March 1.

"The rally up from the next major low will be the bull market top and it might just be a retest and then the index will trend down into 2012," he said.

We are in a five-year bear cycle which will top in 2010 to be followed by a two-year bear trend like in the 1930s and 1970s, according to McLaren.

"The concern for the debt of Portugal and Greece is not the real problem," McLaren said on 'Squawk Box Europe'. "The real problem is this consensus building that deficits must now be reined in."

The S&P suffered the worst day since April 20, 2009 on Thursday.

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Traderone: Now the fear factor is being introduced to the market and more such fear factors will be reported. Otherwise how to bring the market down?

KLCI-Fell into Bear's territory for the short-term.

The Bear has claimed victory over Bull with MACD falling into Bear's territory. Confirmation will come with price falling below 100 MA.

Forex-Eurousd likely to rebound

4 hour chart and MACD histogram indicate rebounce is likely. Buy Euro progressively for rebounce.

Technical analysis useful tool for planning stock trades: Strategist

NextView chief market strategist expects the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index to see a correction to between 950 and 1000 points in the next three to six months.

STOCK market retail traders can learn to use technical analysis to formulate their own trading entry and exit plan for general market trades or even for specific stocks, said NextView Sdn Bhd chief market strategist Benny Lee.

Lee said that retail traders can use either 30-, 60- or 90-day moving average indicators to chart when to buy, sell or to minimise their risk of capital loss.

In technical analysis, taking note of a stock price's support and resistance levels are key. The support level is typically where the price does not go below a level due to sustained buying interests while a resistance level is when traders/investors are selling the stock, thus preventing the stock's price from rising higher.

"In a bearish market or downtrend, the best time to buy is when there is real fear in the market and when the price moves very far from the average indicator, as there will be a rebound," Lee said at a public talk titled "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon! Grow and Secure Your Wealth in 2010" held in Klang yesterday.

However, the best time to buy in a bullish market is when the price is close to the average indicator as it will probably not fall below its support level.

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Traderone: Technical analysis will work if most of the traders are using them. But here, many are market timers, they time their entries and exit based on their feeling and rumours. Perhaps TA will work for those index stocks where the major players are the institutional investors.

KCLI- not out of the wood yet

Not out of the wood yet. Wait for MACD to move above its mid-point or it moved above its 50 MA. Otherwise it might be a tech rebounce.

60 min chart has yet to give confirmation that it is out of the wood.

Forex-Eurousd retraced from its overbought position

Euro retraced from its overbought position as expected (refer in my earlier posting).

With the retracement, the one hour chart and other charts are now in oversold position, therefore it is most likely to move up before moving down to complete its 4 hour chart downward movement.

Forex-Eurousd -expect some corrections

Euro went up higher but 4- hour chart is now in overbought position. Expect some corrections.

Forex-Eurousd rebounded from oversold position

Eur0usd rebounded from oversold position and with the backing of fundamental issue such as the huge buget deficit.

US Budget Deficit to Balloon to Record $1.6 Trillion in 2010

The White House will predict a $1.6 trillion U.S. budget deficit in the 2010 fiscal year, a fresh record and the biggest since World War Two as a share of the economy, a congressional source told Reuters on Sunday.

The grim forecast adds to the challenges facing President Barack Obama, who is emphasizing a message of fiscal discipline but is also seeking stimulus measures to boost the struggling economy in the near term.

Obama's budget proposal, which will be released at 10 a.m. EST on Monday, will predict a narrowing of the deficits to $700 billion by fiscal 2013 before they gradually rise back to $1 trillion by the end of the decade, the Capitol Hill source said.

He will submit his spending blueprint for the 2011 fiscal year that begins Oct. 1 and runs through Sept. 30 next year.

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Traderone:With such huge budget deficit can the USD continue to strengthen? If so, where is the fundamental that support the demand for USD? Or is the market so inefficient that investors are chasing less worthy assets? Will this be the catalyst that support Eurousd to rebound since it is already in oversold position?